CovidLaws // Belgium // Risk map
COVID19 Event Risk Assessment
Calculating the chance that one or more members of a group is/are infected.
Group size: 
Base number:Cases per 100k population in the past... 

Bias:Ascertainment bias: incidence is multiplied by this number. 
Age groups (empty=all)Age groups

Province  0  9  10  19  20  29  30  39  40  49  50  59  60  69  70  79  80  89  90plus  All 
Based on the model of the Georgia Institute of Technology.
Base number: Positive tests in the past X days per 100k population. CDC recommends to use past 10 days.
Bias: As default, the value of three is set. This number depends on the positivity rate, for Belgium I assume that for one tested person, there are 2 infected but not tested.
For the age group ratio, the values of all Belgium is taken and calculated down to province size.
Formula used: 100  (((1(1/(100000/(cases*bias)))) ** groupsize) * 100)
Cases data is fetched every day at 10am from Sciensano.be
Thanks to Ricus van der Kwast from The Corona Diaries for the assistance.